Methodology
exactly how every number on this site is computed
Every figure on d4worth is derived from one thing: real gold amounts paid in real trades. There are no predictions, no model estimates and no smoothing applied to the headline price. This page spells out each step so you can judge a number yourself.
1 · The data source
Listings, sales and price changes are collected continuously from the public diablo.trade market feed — every new listing, sale and price edit is recorded as it happens. d4worth is a read-only mirror: it never logs into any account, stores no credentials, and never facilitates a trade. What you see is the public market, unedited.
2 · What counts as a sale
When a listing is marked sold, we use the actual sold price. Sellers frequently mark an item sold at or below their asking price, so the last ask is only a fallback when no sold figure was recorded. Two kinds of row are excluded from every statistic because they are not real trades: a listed price of 0, and the "999B" sentinel (any value at or above 999,000,000,000 gold), which is a placeholder some sellers use to take an item off the market.
3 · Clean price vs raw price
Both are computed over each item's sales in the selected window — the last 24 hours or 7 days, chosen with the toggle in the top nav (item pages and shared links default to 7 days). The clean price is the median of those sales — the middle one, so a single outlier (a panic dump or an overpay) barely moves it. This is the number we treat as "the real price." The raw price is the simple average, shown for comparison; with few sales the two can differ, and that gap itself tells you how noisy an item's market is.
4 · Spread
For items with at least four sales in the window we also show a spread: the gap between the 25th and 75th percentile of recent sales, expressed as a percentage of the clean price. A low spread means sellers are pricing tightly around one level; a wide spread means the market is unsettled and any single number should be read with care.
5 · Trend
An item's trend compares its average sale price over the last 24 hoursagainst the average over the six days before that. A positive trend means recent sales are running above the prior baseline (the item is appreciating); a negative trend means they're running below it (depreciating). Because every market moves together, we then compare each item to the market-wide median trend — that relative figure is what drives the signal.
6 · The SELL / STASH / WATCH signal
The signal answers one question: is this worth selling now, or should I wait? It fires when an item's trend is more than 8 percentage points away from the market median in either direction:
SELL— the item is weakening relative to the wider market. It's underperforming by a wide margin; if you hold it, selling before it slips further is usually the better call.
STASH— the item is strengthening relative to the wider market. It's outperforming by a wide margin; holding for further upside may pay off.
WATCH— the item is moving in line with the market (within ±8 points). No clear edge either way.
7 · What we don't do
d4worth is a price board, not an exchange. There are no auctions, no middleman fees and no RMT facilitation — it simply shows you what the market is doing so you can decide for yourself. Base (rare/magic) equipment is excluded from item pages because it trades as bulk material rather than individual named items. And remember the seasonal effect: every new Diablo IV season floods the market with fresh gear and prices re-price from scratch, which is why we track each item day-by-day within the current season.